What a 2 weeks of racing we have had so far in the Tour. We have had new winners, gravel chaos, 120km solo attacks, a new holder of most stage wins and now the general classification is kicking off.
Tour de France – Stage 15 was a mountain stage with over 4500m of elevation gain finishing at the top of the Plateau de Beille and came off the back of another mountains stage.
The question here was ‘Could Jonas Vingegaard break, and drop, Tadej Pogacar like last year?’
What unfolded was a brutal stage of racing where the pace was kept high throughout and saw a small group of select top 10 riders begin the final climb together.
The first third of the climb was paced my Matteo Jorgensen, a team mate of Jonas Vingegaard, at a high intensity. Once he was finished it was all on Jonas to make his move.
Vingegaard is not known for having a big acceleration that can break the elastic of top riders and relies on slowly wearing others down on the big climbs, where aerodynamics plays such a small part.
Pogacar had to push to hold the wheel of Jonas and was visibly having to put in a big effort, but with 5.4km to go Pogacar saw weakness and attacked. An attack that has been so devastating on this tour so far, Pogacar managed to ride to the summit to take the stage victory over Jonas Vingegaard by 1 minute and 8 seconds.
But was Pogacar bluffing with the effort that he was putting in on the wheel of Vingegaard; let’s have a look at the numbers.
The benefit of sitting on Vingegaard’s wheel
Road racing in teams is all about one riding saving energy whilst sitting on the wheel of the rider in front- known as drafting. On a flat stage, to overcome this aerodynamic drag you will use anywhere between 80% and 95% of the energy that you a producing, which is why you often see large groups of riders together.
On big gradients such as those in the mountains, most of the energy a cyclist is exerting is put into overcoming gravity and the amount that goes into overcoming air resistance becomes far less. This is why you see far smaller groups and riders just drifting off the wheel of the rider in front more often.
But you still see riders working in teams, so there must be some benefits of drafting here. Let’s dive into some numbers:
For the time that Vingegaard was dragging Pogacar up the climb, he would have had to average around 366w which is 6.31 watts per kg of body weight. The riders were doing 23.74kph at an average gradient of 8.1% for 5.3km.
At these speeds and this gradient, Pogacar would have been putting around 17.5% of his energy to overcome aerodynamic drag and then received a bonus reduction of around 15% of that sitting behind a small rider such as Vingegaard.
Typically for a rider the size and weight of Pogacar, he would have had to produce 419w to ride at this speed on this gradient, which is 6.34 watts per kg. Because of the advantage of sitting on the wheel he managed to save around 8 watts of energy- taking his effort to 411w (6.23w/kg). It doesn’t sound like much, but in a sport of such fine margins it could have made all the difference. These 8 watts are why riders still draft on the big mountain climbs!
The Final 5.4km
As soon as Pogacar sensed weakness he attacked, and immediately pulled a gap. A gap that gradually and evenly got bigger, out to the 1 minute and 8 second advantage over the line. Pogacar riding an average speed of 26.43kph and Vingegaard 24.17kph.
But was it because he had a lot left when sitting on the wheel of Vingegaard? Let’s have a look at the numbers.
The final 5.4km averaged 7.1% as some of the slopes began to flatten out, meaning higher speeds and less energy going into overcoming gravity which benefited Pogacar, the heavier rider.
In terms of power output, I estimated that Pogacar slightly increased his power output to around 435w (6.59w/kg) for this section, which would be about right for a well paced ride where you can dig yourself into a hole at the end! This was an increase of around 24w from when riding on the wheel of Vingegaard earlier on.
Vingegaard’s numbers dropped from the point he was overtaken. He could have gone too far into the red when trying to break free earlier or the mental toll of seeing the yellow jersey go into the distance played its tricks. His estimated power from the moment he was dropped up to the finish was 346w (5.96w/kg). A drop of around 20w.
Looking Forwards
Pogacar had slightly more to give; Vingegaard was giving too much- but what an exciting race. 2 top athletes pushing each other to the absolute limit. I am looking forward to the final week- and even next year where both riders will hopefully be in their best ever form!
If you would like to see more content like this and tips on how to improve your training and racing, subscribe to our emails for free!
